Abersoch
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Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Sunday 27th May, 2018 at 8.00am By Chas

   

 

Headline Summary: A Thundery Shower Lottery Situation.


General Situation: The weather eventually brightened up late yesterday afternoon bringing a fine early evening period with some warm sunshine, which arrived a bit too late for our update on the Beach Report Page. Showers returned later in the evening and there has also been some rain early this morning followed by a brighter period as this forecast is being typed, however, the sky is black to the northeast. So today is looking like being all a bit of a game of hit and miss with areas of thundery showers moving up from the southeast and luck will play a big role. There is currently a nasty looking area of thunderstorms heading across Gwynedd as this forecast is being typed (see below).

The issue this weekend is that although high pressure is not too far away, positioned up to the north and northeast of Britain, and is blocking off our normal source of weather coming in from the Atlantic, the highs are letting in low pressure move up from Biscay and Iberia through the back door, bringing the threat of these potentially thundery showery incursions. The good news is that it does look as though Monday and Tuesday may see the shower risk diminish, with some warm sunshine at times...


Today (Sunday): An area of heavy, thundery rain is moving across Gwynedd and heading into Anglesey, according to the latest precipitation radar and initially the worst of this may miss us, as it passes to the north of us, howver, as mentioned above, further areas of thundery showers will be moving on a similar SE to NW axis during the day and it will be pot luck as to whether we avoid them or get a direct hit. As the models and forecasts only give a general picture of the chance of these showers, the only way to know whether one is on course to hit is to keep an eye on these radars, of which there are various online (eg Netweather.TV). So, a glance up at the sky to the NE at the moment and the sky is looking black, as that area of showers crosses Gwynedd and heads towards Anglesey, perhaps clipping us on its southern flank. More of the same through the day with the chance of some warm spells of sunshine and these areas of cloud and potential showers tracking across N Wales, if the track of these storms changes slightly, we could get a bit of a battering, however, there remains a chance that we may be just to the south of the worst of them - we'll keep you posted on the beach report page and on twitter. Winds up and down from an easterly quarter today, perhaps falling light or very light this afternoon, though when we are in the proximity of a thunderstorm, the wind may increase noticeably and perhaps be strong for a time! This evening, the risk of showers diminishes. An interesting day of weather!


Tonight: Dry and humid with light easterly winds and some low cloud.


Monday: Potentially a dry day with some early low cloud breaking to hazy sunshine or sunshine, with the chance of some decent spells of very warm sunshine developing. Feeling humid and sticky in the sunnier spells, especially as the breeze may remain very light at times, perhaps kicking in from the northeast later. The potential is there for this to be a bit of a cracking beach day once that sun burns off the coastal mist and if that breeze remains light. As for the shower risk, this could increase a little bit late in the day, but we would be unlucky to get a shower by the looks of it and a fine evening and night is possible.


Tuesday: Although Tuesday may see a continuation of the same weather pattern, with high pressure to the north and northeast of the UK, with low pressure to the south and southeast sending in showers, it looks as though the showers will be affecting areas in the far south of the UK, so at this stage, Tuesday may end up being a good day, with plenty of sunshine and the northeasterly breeze perhaps falling light enough to allow local temperatures to soar. Another cracking beach day is a possibility.


Outlook: Wednesday to Friday may see the same weather pattern continue, with high pressure to the north and northeast of the UK, with low pressure to the south and southeast. Temperatures look like remaining generally warm, with some sunshine and the chance of those showery spells moving up across the UK at times. There is the chance of a couple of fine days within this 3 day period, but due to the problems in forecasting these showery troughs, the day to day detail is elusive at this stage.


Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 2nd June 2018 to 6th June 2018 still looks like being a case of more of the same, with the chance of some lovely, warm and sunny beach weather at times, interspersed with showery periods, which could be thundery.


   

GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

   
   

 

   

 

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disclaimer

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk