Abersoch
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Forecast For Abersoch : Monday 18th March, 2024 - Issued at 7.45am by Chas

   

 

 

Headline Summary: A Mostly Dry Start To The Working Week. Rain Tonight.

 

The forecast is back after a few weeks of illness and I hope to be able to maintain daily updates again going forward - fingers crossed!!

 

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch. It is a dry start to the week here, but we have a fair amount of cloud early this morning, but some sunny spells are expected today.

 

The next Atlantic low pressure system will feed in fronts during this evening and tonight, so there will be some wet weather however, these should have cleared by the time we get to dawn tomorrow, so Tuesday should also see a mostly dry daytime. Another low will be bringing some more wet weather overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday and the wet weather may linger on Wednesday morning. By Thursday, a strong to gale force southwesterly looks like bringing a bit of a shower lottery, but also plenty of cloud and then another low will probably feed in rain overnight into Friday, followed by very windy and brighter conditions for Friday daytime, with a shower lottery scenario.

 

This morning's models then show a chillier northwesterly then northerly wind for next weekend, so there should be drier and sunny spells, along with a background risk of showers, but the wind will feel cold. The best of any sunshine may be on Sunday...

 

Today: Monday: We should see a dry day today, with some sunshine and variable amounts of cloud coming and going. Best of the sunshine is expected this morning and perhaps into the early afternoon, but generally cloudier later. Temperatures up to about 11c, but any spots with shelter should do OK in the sunny intervals. Winds up to about fresh in strength, but stronger later in the afternoon as they back to the south. Rain arriving during the evening and further rain is possible overnight and winds will be gusting to gale force from the south or southwest this evening and overnight. Mild overnight too.

 

Tuesday: Potentially OK during the daytime period. Early cloud giving way to brighter skies with a mix of sunny spells and cloud coming and going during the day. Winds may be fresh early in the day, but should fall lighter as the day goes on and drop out later. Temperatures up to 11c during the day. Light winds overnight, but rain is expected to arrive later in the night.

 

Wednesday: Early rain giving way to drier and brighter weather during the day. Timings uncertain, but at the moment the wet weather may last well into the morning, but the afternoon could be OK with some sunshine. Winds from the northwest and not quite as mild. Chillier overnight.

 

Thursday: Variable amounts of cloud on Thursday, and we may see plenty of dry weather though a shower cannot be completely ruled out. Winds increasing from southwest during the day and bcoming gale force. Milder later after a chilly start to the day.

 

Friday: A blustery day with strong to gale force westerly winds and a shower lottery scenario, but there should be some spells of sunshine too. Feeling chilly.

 

Outlook: The shower lottery continues on Saturday , with a strong to gale force northwesterly and the wind will bring a cold feel. Sunday may be OK, with a northerly breeze. Generally cooler temperatures over the weekend and any clear periods overnight could bring a touch of frost to very sheltered spots. High levels of uncertainty by Monday.

 

Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Tuesday 26th March to Saturday 30th March ... remains very uncertain, this morning, with various scenarios on the table for the run up to the Easter weekend, however, it does look potentially very changeable.

 

Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...

 

   

GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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GFS at 10 days
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ECMWF at 10 days
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

       
     

 

     

 

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disclaimer

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk