Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Wednesday 16th August, 2017 at 8.55am By Chas



Headline Summary: Bright Start, Then...

General Situation: The weather this week is in a very changeable mode with the wet weather of Monday being replaced by a lovely sunny day yesterday and this morning has started bright and breezy. Unfortunately, the weather is set to go downhill again today and especially this afternoon with a gale or severe gale on the way along with some more rain, before the weather improves again tomorrow, followed in turn by a showery Friday, a better Saturday and then a wet day on Sunday - so in essence, the weather couldn't be more changeable at the moment, with low pressure remaining stubbornly in charge of August! There remain some hints in the charts this morning that a warmer and more settled spell could arrive towards the middle of next week, but before then, we are in the hands of low pressure...

Today (Wednesday): A bright and very breezy start to the day with plenty of cloud and some hazy sunshine. Cloud building through the morning with perhaps a few spits or spots in the wind, before showery drizzle or rain arrives this afternoon. As was the case on Monday, at the moment, the worst of the rain looks like arriving during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening, however, we'll keep an eye on the radar and post updates on the twitter page if this changes. Winds today are an important aspect, with the southerly gusting to strong this morning, then gale force and it may become severe gale force for a time later this afternoon and into the early evening. Feeling fairly mild despite the wind.

Tonight: Rain with winds easing and drier weather later in the night.

Thursday: The area of low pressure bringing today's increasingly unsettled weather is set to be positioned to the NW of Scotland on Thursday, with Abersoch in a brisk southwesterly wind flow, bringing through variable amounts of cloud with some decent spells of sunshine too. At the moment it does looks as though we will stay dry during the day as the shower risk looks set to be mostly subdued, though a rogue one cannot be completely ruled out.

Friday: West-southwesterly winds are set to become strong to gale force on Friday, with low pressure still near to the north of Scotland and these winds may bring through a few showers during the day to the Abersoch area, with some drier and brighter periods in between and there could be a spell of heavier rain at some stage, though the timing of this is yet to be determined.

Outlook: Saturday may see more of an emphasis on drier and brighter weather again, with the fresh to strong winds from a westerly quarter bringing variable amounts of sunshine to the peninsula, along with some periods of sunshine too, so potentially an OK day. Sunday is looking a different story with yet another low pressure system firing fronts into the UK, bringing cloudy and damp weather to Abersoch, along with the likelihood of a southwesterly gale. Monday follows the changeable theme, with brighter weather, however there may be a cool and strong westerly airflow, which could bring the odd shower to the area.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from Tuesday 22nd August to Saturday August 26th August is for the weather to potentially settle down during the middle of next week, as high pressure becomes more influential for a time. It is too soon to know whether this potential high pressure influence is going to be a shortlived affair (ie a couple of days) or whether it will develop into something slighhtly more prolonged - however - there is cause for a little optimism this morning going forward.



GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk