Abersoch
Abersoch


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Abersoch

 
 
 

 



 

   


Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Saturday 17th November, 2018 at 7.50am By Chas

   

 

Headline Summary: A Dry Weekend With Some Sunshine.

General Situation: Good morning - bore da... it is a mostly clear start to the day in Abersoch with a chilly breeze coming in from the east-southeast and winds from an easterly quarter will feature over the coming days, feeding in increasingly chilly air from the continent. The latest chart for 6am this morning shows high pressure towards Scandinavia with low pressure out in the Atlantic. The outcome for Abersoch is this easterly feed and the good news is that it looks like staying mostly dry for several days, with the models then tinkering with the possibility of low pressure moving up from the south during the midweek period, perhaps strengthening the winds, making it feel colder and bringing in some precipitation, which could be wintry on the mountains. Thereafter, the models are a bit all over the place for the further outlook, but a continuation of the chilly weather remains a possibility...


Today (Saturday): Plenty of sunshine is expected today with potentially not much cloud at all, with moderate east-southeasterly winds to start, which may fall lighter during the day, before increasing noticeably later. How the day will feel will depend on the behaviour of this chilly-ish breeze and whether the local "Abersoch easterly effect", which we mention on here from time to time, comes into play. Whatever happens regarding the wind strength, sheltered spots will be the place to benefit from the prolonged spells of sunshine. Mostly clear this evening.


Tonight: Mostly clear with a strong and chilly wind from an easterly quarter making the bay rather rough.

Sunday: Fine weather, with again the wind coming in from an easterly quarter, but the day should be dry and should see plenty of sunshine. Sheltered spots doing best for warmth, with that wind up and down during the day and potentially strongest early in the morning and during the evening and overnight periods. The bay will be very choppy at times. Clear spells overnight and chilly.

Monday: Becoming a touch colder and this will be noticeable as there may be more cloud knocking about during the day, with sunny intervals coming and going. Winds up to fresh in strength and from the east, so very choppy in the bay, with the strongest winds early and late in the day and overnight.

Outlook: Tuesday To Thursday continues the easterly them and it may turn colder still. Tuesday may be dry with some bright or sunny spells too. For Wednesday and Thursday, there is a chance of dry weather continuing, though some charts suggest low pressure moving up from the south, bringing rain and perhaps snow to the mountains. It is too early to know whether the low pressure will make it as far north as Abersoch.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 23rd November 2018 to 27th November 2018 - is all a bit up in the air this morning, however, a chilly-ish, but not overly cold scenario may continue. The difference in evolution of the 192hr charts below means that various options are on the table, so perhaps a milder interlude is also a possibility.


   

GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

   
   

 

   

 

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disclaimer

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk