Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Thursday 21st September, 2017 at 8.15am By Chas



Headline Summary: Early Showers / Sunnier Afternoon.

General Situation: The weather remains in a very changeable mode this morning with that early rain and winds have gone from gale force southwesterly to more of a northwesterly in a relatively short period of time, as a front passed through the area. Things are looking much better this afternoon and evening before low pressure again sends fronts in to potentially spoil the day on Friday. At the moment, the weekend looks like seeing low pressure stalling out to the west, with higher pressure to the east and the resultant squeeze of isobars between the two air masses, does mean that it is going to be rather breezy, however, Saturday is looking like being a dry and bright day, with some uncertainties regarding timings for Sunday, but fronts may eventualy affect the area again... and that means only one thing... another spell of rain at some stage of the day, though note that this could be delayed until later in the day...

Today (Thursday): Early showers clearing through the area this morning with brighter weather following on behind during the second half of the morning with plenty of sunshine expected this afternoon and into the early afternoon. The strong northwesterly wind is expected to ease down, with light to moderate west to southwesterlies for the afternoon and evening - so potentially a very pleasant second half of the day.

Tonight: Clear spells, variable amounts of cloud and the southwesterly wind increasing. Perhaps a shower blowing through.

Friday: Unsettled conditions arriving on Friday with a spell of rain potentially spoiling the day, after a dry start. Winds will be a feature, with a gale force southerly wind at times. Rain clearing during the evening, with winds easing down. Fairly mild.

Saturday: Potentially a dry day with some sunshine, hazy at times, with variable amounts of high cloud. Winds will again be noticeable and perhaps fresh to strong at times from a southerly quarter. Remaining dry on Saturday evening.

Outlook: Perhaps a dry first half of Sunday with some bright and breezy weather, with the chance of a deterioration during the afternoon as fronts edge in from the west - but note that there is plenty of uncertainity regarding the timing of the arrival of any front or fronts. Changeable weather perhaps lasting into Monday, depending on the timings of Sunday's front(s) with a general improvement possible for the afternoon. Tuesday may see fine and reasonably warm weather with winds by that time coming in from the SE.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 27th September to October 1st is for higher pressure to the east and northeast and Atlantic low pressure out to the west and northwest, with the UK in a kind of battleground scenario - so - the pendulum could swing from the influence of one air mass to the other, however, it does generally looks as though western Britain will see more of the Atlantic influence at times during this period, with the best of the weather reserved for the southeast of the UK.


GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk