Abersoch
Abersoch


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Abersoch

 
 
 

 



 

   


Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Sunday 21st January, 2018 at 8.15am By Chas

   

 

Headline Summary: Wet Weather But Milder Later. Note: There will be no update on Monday morning - next update Tues 23/01.

General Situation: There is a battle going on this morning, between cold and milder airmasses with low pressure to the south of Iceland feeding in an occluded front, followed by a warm front and milder air. The result is some wet weather, preceded by snow on some of the higher ground of North Wales, with the milder air mass winning the battle and potentially lasting for several days. The milder conditions will have a price though, as low pressure will be dominating this week, with strong winds a regular feature, along with some wet weather at times. Monday is still looking like seeing the driest weather of the next few days...

Today (Sunday): Rain this morning with a really cold and fairly strong southeasterly wind and perhaps some sleetiness for a time on the local high ground. The rain may continue on and off into the afternoon, with perhaps a drier end to the afternoon. Winds veering towards the southwest this afternoon and generally easing as they do so, then increasing again later. Feeling very cold this morning, but noticeably milder by evening.


Tonight: Drier with variable amounts of cloud and a strong westerly wind. Mild.

Monday: Potentially a dry day on Monday with winds from a westerly quarter, moderate to fresh at times with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. Fairly mild, but it won't feel particularly so out in the wind. Southwesterly winds picking up during the evening with some rain overnight and perhaps a gale.

Tuesday: Southwesterly gales with showers or outbreaks of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. Perhaps some heavy rain at times as active fronts cross the area. Persistent and heavy rain overnight with gales or severe gales.

Outlook: Southwesterly gales for Wednesday bringing the potential for further rain or showers. The strong winds and very changeable theme continues for Thursday and Friday however, there may be a temporary incursion of chillier air on Thursday night and Friday, with winds retunring to a northerly quarter for a time, bringing in showers, perhaps wintry on the hills.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 27th January 2018 to 31st January 2018 is for a fairly mild period, potentially remaining rather changeable and windy. Some charts are suggesting higher pressure may play a role for a time, however, the odds are perhaps slightly against this at the moment.

   

GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

   
   

 

   

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk