Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Sunday 30th April, 2017 at 8.20am By Chas


Headline Summary
Winds From An Easerly Quarter.

General Situation: As has been on the cards for a few days now, low pressure is bringing winds from an easterly quarter to Abersoch today, making the bay choppy and the low pressure bringing the wind, which is expected to move from SW Ireland and across southern Britain over the next 24 hours, also has some showery rain associated with it. The forecast track of the low has been shifting each day and although there are still differences between the models even now regarding its track, it now looks as though the winds will stay from an easterly quarter at times tomorrow too, by which time they should be much lighter. The outlook for the rest of the week is for mostly fine weather, with daytime sunshine and a cool easterly wind, which may fall lighter at times during the day bringing the potential for some very nice periods...

Today: There should be some bright spells this morning in Abersoch, with variable amounts of cloud and a brisk wind from the east or east-southeast, however, today's forecast is all about the timing of the arrival of showery rain associated with the low pressure mentioned above. At the moment, the main area of showers is lying from a line across the Irish Sea from Dublin to Pembrokeshire and this is expected to edge closer during the day. At the moment, the latest thinking is that although a rogue shower cannot be ruled out this morning, it may stay dry until the afternoon, when the risk of showers will increase, however, pinpointing the exact timing of the arrival of these is impossible with perhaps the drier weather lasting until mid-afternoon. The late afternoon and evening period looks showery. The east-southeasterlies today may gust to strong, but also fall much lighter at times, as easterlies can be fickle in the immediate Abersoch area.

Tonight: Easterly breeze with variable amounts of cloud and still perhaps one or two showers.

Monday: East or northeasterly winds may fall light at times on Monday with some dry and bright weather with just the chance of one or two showers affecting the area, but at the moment it looks like being dry for the vast majority of the day. Some sunny spells may develop, especially for the afternoon period, so the afternoon has the potential to become very pleasant (depending on cloud amounts) with potentially light breezes too. Clear periods on Monday night.

Tuesday: Dry and mostly fine on Tuesday with perhaps some long sunny spells, with a bit of patchy cloud coming through on a light to moderate wind from the east or northeast.


Outlook: Wednesday to Friday look like being dominated by high pressure to the north of Britain, feeding in an easterly breeze with the chance of plenty of sunshine for the western coasts of Wales, so the Abersoch area may see some very good weather at times, tempered by an easterly breeze, which may have a cool feel, but may also fall light at times during the day.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from Saturday 6th May to Wednesday 10th May is for high pressure to be situated somewhere to the north of Britain for the first half of the period, with lower pressure to the south and an easterly flow of wind. There is a chance that rain could encroach on the area from the south or southwest for a time, however, dry conditions are perhaps equally possible. The second half of the period may also see winds from an easterly quarter, however, some models this morning are showing colder air arriving from the northeast, which would be unwelcome at this time of year - however, that is so far off in forecasting terms that hopefully any cold snap will be watered on subsequent model runs.



GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk