Abersoch
Abersoch


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Abersoch

 
 
 

 



 

   


Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Tuesday 23rd October, 2018 at 6.20am By Chas

   

 

Headline Summary: Cloudy At Times.

General Situation: Good morning - bore da... it is another early update this morning, so not all the charts have updated yet, so we will review the text of this forecast and add the latest ECMWF charts at nearer to 8am... high pressure is sat to the southwest of Britain, feeding in winds from the west-northwest today, and there does look like more in the way of cloud coming in compared to Monday, though it should still be mostly dry and there are expected to be some sunny intervals too and Wednesday and Thursday may see more of the same, all be it with more cloud. The noticeable change in the weather, that has been signalled for several days now, still looks set to be on Friday, with the passage of a cold front coming down from the north, with a spell of Arctic sourced northerlies following on behind. So, at this stage the weekend looks like being a cold one, but although there may be one or two showers coming down the Irish Sea, it does look as though Abersoch will see some sunshine at times, all be it with a with a bracing wind. Beyond the weekend - and some charts suggest some strong east or southeasterly winds making it feel really rather chilly early next week and there could be some very wet weather edging in from the southwest at some stage, which could turn wintyy for a time on the mountains of North Wales. All that is a long way off, so back to today...
Edit / Update: 7.40am: The latest ECMWF charts have been added - also showing the easterly theme next week and perhaps some unsettled weather pushing in from the southwest. This type of scenario, with high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure potentially moving in from the southwest, would potentially produce blizzards if it showed up in a few weeks time, but at this time of year, any wintriness looks like being restricted to the highest ground of North Wales - but it does look like feeling pretty cold at times in the wind next week, after that chilly northerly plunge at the weekend.


Today (Tuesday): West-northwesterly winds for today, moderate to fresh in strength at times and having a cool feel to them. The wind will potentially feed in more in the way of cloud than was the case on Monday, though there should be some sunny intervals too and there is not expected to be any rain. Temperatures not too bad, but shelter will be needed to benefit from any of the brighter spells. More of the same this evening, with variable amounts of cloud coming and going.

Tonight: Variable amounts of cloud overnight, with moderate west-northwesterly winds.

Wednesday: Northwesterly winds for Wednesday, moderate-ish in strength and feeding in plenty of cloud to the area, though again it looks lke staying mostly dry. Feeling cool in the wind. Plenty of cloud overnight but dry.

Thursday: Light to moderate west-northwesterly or northwesterlies on Thursday, with again a fairly cloudy but mostly dry theme.


Outlook: Showers arriving overnight into Friday along with a strengthening wind from a northerly quarter heralding colder weather with showers during the day on Friday, along with some sunny intervals too. This cold theme, with strong northerlies, looks like continuing on Saturday with some sunshine and perhaps also the chance of one or two showers streaming down the Irish Sea, falling as snow on the tops of Snowdonia, but Abersoch may see some decent spells of sunshine. Cold overnight on Saturday, with perhaps a touch of grass frost in the most sheltered spots. Sunday sees a continuation of the cold wind coming down from a northerly quarter, with perhaps plenty of sunshine for Abersoch.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 29th October 2018 to 2nd November 2018 - is for a a spell of chilly weather during the first half of the period, with winds coming in from an easterly quarter and there could also be some very wet weather for a time, with perhaps some wintriness on the mountains. Perhaps turning less cold later in the period, but this is far from certain.


   

GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

   
   

 

   

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk