Forecast For Abersoch : Monday 6th May, 2024 - Issued at 7.40am by Chas

Headline Summary: Shower Risk For A Time But Some Sunshine Today.

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch... what a great day Saturday was, especially during the morning period when we had that idyllic mix of unbroken sunshine and no breeze, which is the key to warm weather in our part of the world. With no breeze, we get less of an influence coming off the chilly seas around the peninsula and we then see higher temperatures than forecast. Yesterday, values of 18c to 19c were recorded locally which was a couple of degrees higher than the Met Office forecast and several degrees higher than the automated GFS fed apps such as XC weather etc. With high pressure expected to become dominant this week, we will again be looking for those periods of potentially very light winds, when we could see temperatures nudge a touch higher.

Back to the shorter term and it is a bright start here in Abersoch and there are showers showing on the precipitation radar images moving down from northern Britain, however, these do look as though they will mostly have fizzled out by the time they reach Pen Llyn, so the shower risk looks lower than was envisaged on yesterday's update. It won't be as warm as yesterday, but we should have some decent spells during the day.

Thereafter, high pressure is set to take control of the weather for a few days, so it is looking like being a dry week, with some fine and warm spells developing and temperatures could approach 20c, especially later in the week...

Today: Monday: Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud coming and going today with some decent spells of sunshine possible. The cloud may thicken for a time this morning with the low-ish risk of a brief shower, but the vast majority of the day should be dry. Bit of a breeze picking up from a northerly quarter, around moderate this afternoon. Not as warm as Sunday, with temperatures perhaps nudging otwards 15c, with sheltered spots benefitting most from any sunshine. Variable amounts of cloud overnight and a northerly wind.

Tuesday: Dry with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells. Some decent spells of sunshine are possible, especially during the afternoon. A breeze from a northerly quarter may gust light to moderate, with sheltered spots doing best for warmth. If that breeze falls light, then temperatures may sneak into the higher teens C in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Mostly fine with some decent spells of sunshine. The behaviour of the wind is uncertain on this day, with perhaps a bit of a southwesterly breeze, but sheltered spots should do well for warmth.

Thursday: Dry with some sunshine and variable amounts of cloud. The behaviour of the wind is uncertain. Potentially quite warm.

Friday: The fine weather continues with sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Temperatures by this time could reach 20c with a light and variable in direction breeze perhaps dropping at for a time.

Outlook: Dry and probably mostly fine on Saturday. Loads of uncertainty by Sunday and Monday as to whether the influence of the high continues, or whether we see an encroachment of Atlantic low pressure, bringing windier and rather more changeable weather.

Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Tuesday 14th May to Friday 17th May ... is for more in the way of changeable weather - so a mixed bag of conditions, with low pressure having more of an influence at times.

Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...

GFS at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		UKMO at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		ECMWF at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

Tweets by abersochdotco  

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk