Abersoch
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Forecast For Abersoch : Thursday 28th March, 2024 - Issued at 7.40am by Chas

   

 

 

Headline Summary: OK For A Time This Morning Then Showers Expected.

 

The forecast is back after a few weeks of illness and I hope to be able to maintain daily updates again going forward - fingers crossed!!

 

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch. The worst of the wet weather this morning is now to the north of us, and although there is just the chance of a shower early on, we should see some decent spells this morning, before the next batch of showers arrives. It was quite cold overnight and temperatures are again not expected to be particularly warm today. However, it should warm up a bit through the weekend.

 

Another area of low pressure will be moving up into the UK today, bringing those showers to our area from around midday, and these could be heavy, and we will also see a noticeable wind from an easterly quarter for a time. The shower risk should lower by about mid-evening, with some dry weather overnight, before further showers arrive later in the night

 

A south-southwesterly, shower lottery scenario is expected tomorrow, which should be a day which also sees some spells of sunshine, especially during the afternoon period. Although a shower lottery is also expected on Saturday, the vast majority of the day should be dry and after some overnight rain, we should also see some decent spells on Sunday, along with some milder temperatures, though again, a shower cannot be completely ruled out.

 

There remains a question mark for Easter Monday, but there are drier scenarios being painted on some charts, so keep those fingers crossed, however, low pressure is expected to remain in the ascendancy for the rest of next week, so another week with a very mixed bag of weather is likely...


 

Today: Thursday: Some decent spells this morning once the risk of an early shower has passed and we should see some sunshine for a time. Another batch of showers, potentially heavy, will be moving up from the south around about midday (plus or minus an hour), with further showers movng through in the afternoon and early evening, along with drier and brighter intervals. Winds from an easterly quarter, fresh in strength at times, perhaps gusting a little higher in exposed spots during those showers around the middle of the day. Winds then from a westerly quarter this evening. Temperatures may not get to 10c today. Dry for a time overnight with clear spells but more showers arriving late in the night.

 

Friday: Strong winds from the south or southwest, feeding in a mixed bag of weather, with a shower lottery scenario but the majority of the day should be dry and we should see some sunshine in the mix too. Highest risk of showers looks like being in the morning and lunchtime periods with mostly dry weather thereafter, with the chance of a lovely end to the afternoon. Temperatures a bit milder and getting above 10c and sheltered spots should do OK for warmth in any afternoon sunshine.

 

Saturday: Breezy from a southerly quarter, with another shower lottery scenario. There looks like being sunny spells coming and going and there is a chance that the shower risk will be subdued at times - not down to zero risk, so one or two are still a possibilty, but the majority of the day is looking dry - so potentially, not too bad at all. Temperatures just a touch milder.

 

Sunday: Potentiially a mostly dry day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud coming and going on an up and down southeasterly breeze. There is still plenty of uncertainty by this time, especially regarding the shower risk in the afternoon, so the forecast could change. Winds from the southeast, up and down in strength. Probably a touch warmer. More on this day on tomorrow's update, when we should have a better idea of the shower risk.

 

Monday: Loads of uncertainty for this day. The balance may be tipping to a mostly dry scenario, but that could change.

 

Outlook: Low pressure will be in the ascendancy from Tuesday to Thursday, so it is looking like being a very changeable weather pattern with a very mixed bag of weather, with some charts suggesting Wednesday could be a wet one - but that is obviously a long way off.

 

Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Friday 5th April to Tuesday 9th April ... is for a generally very changeable period, with low pressure probably in the ascendancy.

 

Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...

 

   

GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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GFS at 10 days
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ECMWF at 10 days
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

       
     

 

     

 

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disclaimer

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk